Gold & Silver: an unprecedented rally in a changing world

Gold and silver prices continue to rise at a historic pace — a move with direct consequences for sourcing, inventory valuation and the overall dynamics of the precious metals sector. Markets are on edge, investors are alert and central banks are unusually active.

 

 

📍 Where do we stand today (5 December 2025)

Gold (XAU/USD)

• ± $4,207.36 per ounce
• +5.79% over the past month
• +59.78% over the past year

 

Silver (XAG/USD)

• ± $57.46 per ounce

 

At these levels, gold trades around €116,500 per kilo. If that is maintained, gold investors will book an annual return above 40%. It is the strongest yearly performance for gold in 46 years.

 

🌍 What is driving this exceptional rally?

1. Monetary policy

Falling real interest rates increase the appeal of non-yielding assets such as gold and silver.

 

2. Inflation and currency uncertainty

In an environment where inflation appears to stay elevated for longer and currencies are under pressure, precious metals once again act as a protection tool.

 

3. Geopolitical tensions

Rising international risks fuel demand for safe-haven assets.

 

4. Silver benefits twice

 

Silver is supported by both speculative interest and real industrial demand (technology, batteries, solar energy), pushing prices even higher.

 

🏦 Central banks are buying gold aggressively again

According to the World Gold Council (WGC):

• Central banks bought a net 53 tonnes of gold in October 2025, up 36% compared to September.
• Total purchases up to October reached 254 tonnes, slightly below previous years but still well above the long-term average.

 

Who is buying?

• Poland remains the largest buyer with 83 tonnes this year.
• Other notable buyers: Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, Brazil and Turkey.
• China is officially reported as sixth, but analysts believe its real purchases could be up to ten times higher.

 

The WGC expects central banks to keep accumulating gold in 2026.

 

🔮 What do we expect for 2026?

The WGC outlines three macro scenarios:

1. “Shallow Slip” — mild slowdown

• Lower rates + weaker dollar + higher risk aversion
• Gold +5% to +15%

 

2. “Doom Loop” — deep downturn

• Growth weakens due to geopolitical tensions and low investment
• The Fed cuts rates aggressively
• Gold +15% to +30%

 

3. Strong economic growth

• Stable or higher rates + strong dollar
• Capital flows into riskier assets
• Gold –5% to –20%

 

The WGC stresses that gold’s role as a diversification tool and hedge is more relevant than ever.

 

🧐 Analysis — bubble or paradigm shift?

Traditionally, the saying goes:
"Assets that rise rapidly above their long-term trend are usually set for a fall."

After the peak in 1979, gold lost nearly two-thirds of its value over the next five years.

Today we are once again seeing an extraordinary move:

• +60% in a single year
• Adjusted for inflation, gold has never been more expensive

 

But unlike 1979, today’s drivers are structural:

• persistent inflation
• prolonged low real interest rates
• geopolitical fragmentation
• weaker dollar
• institutional demand
• strategic gold purchases by central banks

 

That is why many analysts see this less as a bubble and more as a paradigm shift.

 

 

📌 Conclusion

The gold and silver market is at a crossroads. What is happening now is not driven by speculation alone, but by deep structural forces that may redefine the entire precious metals era.

In a world full of uncertainty, one constant remains:

Gold continues to act as the ultimate protection and anchor of confidence.