Gold under short-term pressure — but fundamentals remain exceptionally strong

The gold market is currently caught between short-term uncertainty and exceptionally strong long-term fundamentals. Recent developments in India, the United States, and the broader geopolitical landscape confirm one thing: gold remains a strategic anchor in an unstable world.

Historic decline in India: a supply shock in the making

India, traditionally one of the largest gold consumers in the world, is seeing its imports fall in April to the lowest level in nearly 30 years.

The cause is not a decline in demand, but a structural disruption:

• Banks — the primary importers — have completely halted their purchases
• An unexpected implementation of a 3% IGST tax is blocking imports
• Only limited volumes are still entering through alternative channels

This situation creates an artificial restriction of supply, which could lead to upward pressure on gold prices once the market normalizes.

Notable shift: investment over jewelry

For the first time in history, investment demand for gold in India has surpassed jewelry demand.

Key figures:

• Investment demand: +52% (82 tonnes)
• Jewelry demand: –19.5% (66 tonnes)
• ETF inflows: +186% (record level)

This is not a detail, but a fundamental shift.

Where gold was traditionally purchased as jewelry, it is now increasingly seen as:

• a hedge against inflation
• an alternative to weak equity markets
• a strategic reserve for private and institutional investors

Macroeconomic pressure: inflation and uncertainty

The global economy is showing increasing signs of stagflation:

• growth is slowing
• inflation continues to rise
• central banks remain cautious

The Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, and the Bank of England are holding rates steady and indicate that rapid easing is not guaranteed.

At the same time:

• oil prices remain high due to geopolitical tensions
• the dollar is weakening slightly
• bond yields are stabilizing

This creates a complex environment where gold faces both support and resistance in the short term.

Price action: a technical battleground

The gold price is currently moving within a critical zone:

• Resistance: $4,602 – $4,628
• Breakout level: towards $4,675 – $4,705
• Support: $4,558 → $4,520

The market is searching for direction, but remains sensitive to:

• macroeconomic data
• geopolitical news
• interest rate expectations

Long-term outlook: convincingly bullish

Despite current volatility, major financial institutions remain strongly positive.

Bank of America expects:

• $6,000 per ounce within 12 months
• an average price around $5,093 in 2026

The underlying drivers:

• structurally high inflation
• rising government debt
• persistent geopolitical uncertainty
• a weaker dollar over the long term

Silver: the silent force alongside gold

Silver is also gaining renewed attention:

• strong industrial demand (especially energy and electrification)
• increasing investor interest
• expected price increase towards $85+ per ounce

The energy transition plays a key role here, with silver remaining essential in technology and infrastructure.

Conclusion: short-term noise, long-term certainty

What we are seeing today is not a weakening of gold — but a repositioning within a changing global order.

Short term:

• volatility
• technical resistance
• policy uncertainty

Long term:

• rising demand
• structural shortages
• growing role as financial protection

Gold remains what it has always been:
not a trend — but a foundation.