Gold above €140,000 per kilo – the beginning of a new record phase?

The gold price is once again trading well above €140,000 per kilo and has recovered strongly from the dip earlier this month. February now appears set to close with a return of more than 6%.

The question is no longer whether gold is strong. The question is: are we at the beginning of a new structural upward phase?

 

 

1. Not a temporary safe-haven rally, but a broad macro bull market

Gold is no longer being bought solely out of fear. It is being accumulated structurally.

Central banks continue to purchase historically high volumes of gold as part of reserve diversification. ETF inflows remain solid, with the largest player being the SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD), which held approximately 1,094 tonnes of gold around February 25, 2026.

Institutional investors increasingly use gold as a core reserve rather than merely a tactical hedge.

ETFs matter because they must purchase physical gold when inflows occur. This directly supports the spot price.

 

 

2. Real rates and dollar weakness remain supportive

Gold competes with interest-bearing assets. When real rates are low or declining, gold becomes more attractive.

Expectations of rate cuts, combined with a weaker U.S. dollar, create an environment in which gold functions as:

 

• Capital preservation
• Inflation protection
• Currency hedge

 

As long as real rates remain low and geopolitical tensions persist, the upward bias remains intact.

 

 

3. World Gold Council: gold remains underrepresented

The World Gold Council (WGC) states that risk assets are historically expensive. Forward P/E ratios in equities are at levels reminiscent of previous peak periods.

At the same time, policy and geopolitical uncertainty remain exceptionally high.

 

According to the WGC:

 

• Gold is still underrepresented in global portfolios.
• U.S. margin debt is rising sharply, indicating speculative overheating.
• An equity market correction could accelerate safe-haven demand.

 

Their conclusion: gold deserves a larger structural allocation.

 

 

4. Goldman Sachs: upside potential not yet priced in

Goldman Sachs also sees room for further gains. The bank expects gold to rise toward $5,400 per ounce by year-end, with additional upside potential if retail investors increase their participation.

Importantly, the gold market is relatively small compared to equity and bond markets. Additional capital inflows can therefore trigger disproportionately strong price movements.

 

 

5. Liquidity is the key

As Stanley Druckenmiller summarized succinctly: everything revolves around liquidity.

The U.S. M2 money supply is once again at a record level (over $22 trillion). In Europe as well, money growth is accelerating.

Following recent government shutdowns, the U.S. Treasury holds hundreds of billions of dollars that could re-enter the financial system.

 

Add to that:

 

• Monthly balance sheet expansion
• Increasing bond purchases by commercial banks
• Expected rate cuts

 

The result: a powerful wave of liquidity flowing into financial markets.

Historically, real assets such as gold, silver, and copper tend to benefit strongly during such phases.

 

 

6. Technical picture: higher low + breakout

In the short term, we observe:

 

• A clear higher low
• A confirmed breakout
• A restored upward trend

 

The recent correction therefore appears to be a healthy pause within a broader bull market rather than the beginning of a downward cycle.

 

 

What does this mean for the coming months?

The current gold rally is supported by:

 

• Structural central bank demand
• ETF inflows
• Rising liquidity
• Inflation and currency risks
• Overvaluation of risk assets

 

The market is increasingly viewing gold less as a temporary hedge and more as a core reserve asset.

 

 

Important note

A sudden hawkish shift by the Federal Reserve could temporarily pressure prices through higher real rates. However, as long as liquidity continues to rise and geopolitical tensions persist, the structural outlook remains positive.

 

 

Conclusion

The February correction does not appear to mark a trend reversal, but rather an interim phase. With rising liquidity, sustained central bank demand, and strong ETF inflows, gold may be preparing for a new upward move.

 

The fundamental floor is higher than ever.

The question is not whether gold plays a role in portfolios.