Spot gold (XAU/USD) around $4,115 per troy ounce • Day range ~$4,106–$4,144 • Yesterday’s close: $4,126

Gold is ticking up as investors await U.S. inflation data and the growing odds of a Federal Reserve rate cut next week.

 

Key drivers

• Rate expectations: Markets are nearly fully pricing a 25 bp Fed cut — supportive for gold.
• Caution: Despite that support, gold enters the week with pullback risk if inflation surprises on the upside.
• Safe-haven bid: Geopolitical tensions and a recently softer dollar continue to underpin demand.

Bottom line: Gold remains near record highs. The Fed decision is the swing factor for the months ahead.