Geopolitical tensions and the impact on gold and silver

Analysis – March 6, 2026

Global financial markets are under heavy pressure in early March 2026 due to a combination of geopolitical escalation and important economic data from the United States. In particular, tensions in the Middle East and the U.S. employment report have a direct impact on commodity markets such as gold and silver.

Escalation in the Middle East

The recent crisis began with joint military actions by the United States and Israel against strategic targets in Iran. In response, Iran launched missile and drone attacks on various targets across the region.

The tensions have also led to a serious maritime crisis around the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most important energy routes. Approximately 20% of global oil supply normally passes through this passage. Due to military threats and attacks on vessels, many shipping companies have temporarily suspended their transport or redirected ships via longer routes around Africa.

This situation has created global uncertainty in energy and financial markets.

Rising oil prices and economic uncertainty

Due to disruptions in the oil trade, oil and gas prices have risen sharply. When energy costs increase, inflationary pressure also rises. This creates uncertainty about economic growth and the future policy of central banks.

Financial markets often react quickly to such risks. Investors therefore seek protection in assets that have historically preserved their value during times of crisis.

Gold as a safe haven

During periods of geopolitical tension, demand for gold usually increases significantly. Gold is widely considered a safe-haven asset.

The gold price has recently shown strong movements again and traded around $5,100 to $5,200 per ounce, after briefly rising above $5,300 per ounce when the first reports of the military escalation emerged.

In addition to geopolitical risks, inflation expectations and currency fluctuations also play a role in this increase.

Silver reacts with higher volatility

Silver has also benefited from increased demand for precious metals and recently traded above $82 per ounce.

However, silver is generally more volatile than gold. This is because silver is not only a precious metal but also an important industrial commodity. As a result, it reacts more strongly to economic expectations and fluctuations in the U.S. dollar.

Crucial macro data: the U.S. jobs report

On March 6, 2026, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes its monthly Employment Situation report.

This report includes important figures such as:

• new jobs (non-farm payrolls)
• unemployment rate
• wage growth

Economists expect around +59,000 to +60,000 new jobs and an unemployment rate of approximately 4.3%.

Even small deviations from expectations can lead to strong market reactions because these figures have a significant influence on interest-rate expectations and the gold price.

Regional physical gold markets: China and India

In addition to international spot prices, regional physical markets also play an important role.

Shanghai Gold Exchange

In China, the Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE) remains an important reference for the physical gold market. The benchmark price for Au99.99 is set twice per day in Chinese yuan per gram.

After the auction of March 3, 2026, this price was above the international benchmark, indicating a premium in the Chinese market and strong demand for physical gold.

India

According to the daily prices of the Indian Bullion & Jewellers Association (IBJA), gold is trading around ₹167,000 per 10 grams, which also implies a premium compared to the international spot price.

Pressure on physical distribution

The physical gold market is currently also facing logistical challenges. Dubai normally acts as an important hub for transporting gold to Switzerland, Hong Kong and India. Due to recent tensions and flight cancellations, some air cargo routes have temporarily stopped operating, which may limit the physical availability of gold and increase regional premiums.

Conclusion

The combination of geopolitical tensions, disruptions in energy routes and important macro-economic data is currently creating exceptionally volatile markets.

• strong demand for gold as a safe haven
• rising oil prices due to disruptions in energy routes
• volatile movements in silver
• regional premiums in physical gold markets

As long as geopolitical uncertainty persists, analysts expect precious metals to continue playing an important role as protection against risk and inflation.