Precious Metals Market Update – Volatility, fundamentals and positioning

February 13, 2026

 

Over the past months, we have written that volatility in precious metals markets would increase. What we witnessed over the last two weeks exceeded expectations.

The trigger was silver’s explosive run-up. Daily increases far above historical norms created euphoria — but also the classic risk: what rises too quickly often corrects just as fast.

 

For long-term investors, this is no surprise. For short-term speculators, often it is.

 

Silver: paper market vs. physical reality

The silver market remains a battleground between futures contracts in London and New York and an increasingly tight physical market.

As early as 2024 — well before it became mainstream — we noted that Chinese markets were playing an increasingly important role in the pricing of both silver and gold. Unlike Western markets, these exchanges more frequently involve actual physical delivery.

 

This physical tightness is not a story of weeks, but of years:

 

• Above-ground inventories are structurally declining
• Industrial demand remains strong
• Persistent market deficits continue
• The correction occurred mainly in paper markets

 

What we observe among our clients: those who partially took profits in January often rebuilt positions gradually during the recent correction. Calmly. Disciplined. As one should in volatile markets.

 

Gold: safe-haven resilience

The spot price of gold recently recovered from a sharp decline and traded around $4,966 per ounce on February 13, 2026, following a clear rebound at lower levels.

 

The earlier decline was driven by:

 

• Strong U.S. labor market data
• Reduced expectations for rapid Federal Reserve rate cuts
• Higher rate expectations temporarily pressuring precious metals

 

Nevertheless, the broader picture remains solid.

What makes this gold rally fundamentally interesting?

 

• Gold remains a safe haven, even after sharp corrections
• Global gold ETFs recorded approximately $19 billion in net inflows in January alone
• This corresponds to roughly 120 additional tonnes held via ETFs
• Total assets under management (AUM) are at record levels

 

According to the Gold Demand Trends report, total physical demand exceeded 5,000 tonnes in 2025 for the first time. Central banks added approximately 863 tonnes to reserves.

 

The People’s Bank of China purchased gold for the 15th consecutive month in January 2026, adding approximately 1.2 tonnes.

Analysts at JP Morgan expect this official demand to continue, projecting 50–60 tonnes per month in 2026.

 

This creates a solid foundation under gold prices — even during periods of correction.

 

Gold/silver ratio: a strategic moment

Following the correction, the gold/silver ratio has returned to around the 60 level. The last time silver was relatively this strong versus gold was in 2013.

A partial shift from silver into gold may therefore be worth considering, particularly for those who benefited from silver’s outperformance.

 

Nevertheless, physical gold remains the absolute foundation of a portfolio. It is irreplaceable in its role as monetary insurance.

 

Macro backdrop: supportive scenario

• U.S. interest rate expectations
• Dollar strength (DXY)
• Inflation and labor market data
• ETF flows
• Geopolitical signals

 

A relatively weaker dollar and moderate 10-year yields typically remain supportive for gold.

 

Limited supply growth

Global mine production is growing only modestly and shows signs of plateauing. New projects add relatively limited volumes compared to total annual global demand.

Demand is currently the marginal price driver.

 

What does this mean for investors?

• Structural physical demand remains strong
• Central banks continue to accumulate
• ETF inflows confirm institutional interest
• Supply growth remains slow
• The silver market remains physically tight

 

A physical position in precious metals is not a luxury today. It is an essential component of a balanced portfolio.

 

In volatile times, discipline always prevails over emotion.